Bitcoin (BTC) has been in one of the most bullish stages since January 2023. Investor sentiment shows the lowest reading in two years, according to Bitcoin’s “Bull Score” index.
Bitcoin Bull Score Index. Source: Cryptoquant
Cryptoquant’s Crypto Weekly Report newsletter described the “Bruscore Index” measures that increase the likelihood of the bear market over a period of less than 40. The bull score remained above 40 throughout 2024, only below this threshold in February 2025, as identified in the chart above.
However, over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin prices have shown resilience compared to the massive losses seen in the US stock market. On April 3, Bitcoin closed the day with a green candle, but the S&P 500 was the historic first, down 4.5%.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones extended their decline on April 4, falling 3.87% and 3.44% respectively, while Bitcoin remained stable near the break-even point.
Related: Arthur Hayes loves tariffs as printed money pain is good for bitcoin
Is Bitcoin closer to the risk-on phase?
Data from Cryptoquant shows that Bitcoin’s Value Day (VDD) metric is currently around 0.72, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price is in transition. Since 2023, such periods have preceded either a consolidation of prices or an updated accumulation prior to bullish breakouts.
Bitcoin Value Day has been destroyed. Source: Cryptoquant
Bitcoin VDD metrics track the movement of long-term coins held and signal marked marking marked market trends since the second half of 2024. The metric peaked at 2.27 on December 12, signaling offensive profits and signaling the highs seen in 2021 and 2017.
This opens up the possibilities of a “risk-on” market for Bitcoin. Financially speaking, a “risk-on” scenario arises when investors accept high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, often driven by an average return of optimism and trends.
Amidst the continued market uncertainty driven by the US-led trade war, Bitcoin was able to unexpectedly benefit from these tense conditions.
According to Crypto Trader Jackis, he talks about Bitcoin and Crypto Market’s potential as a hedge against traditional market volatility.
“Reminder, this isn’t a crypto-driven drop, it’s an overall risk-on, tariff, trade war-driven drop. While all of that is unfolding, crypto has already experienced most of its shortcomings and seems to have been absorbing everything it has recently been in the way of its sales.”
Similarly, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also featured the “fear” category on April 4th, with a score of 28. The index registered a “Extreme Fear” score of 25 on April 3, suggesting that current prices could present attractive purchase opportunities.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
Related: As DXY softens, financial yields for 10 years fall to 4%. Is it time to buy a decline in Bitcoin prices?
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
