Bitcoin (BTC) held profits to its shoulder at the Wall Street Open on March 13th as US inflation markers continued to fall.
BTC/USD 1 hour chart. Source: CointeLegraph/TradingView
Is good news bad news? Bitcoin is below stocks
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that BTC/USD cycled at $81,500, down 2.3% that day.
The February printing of the Producer Price Index (PPI) appeared below the median forecast, copying the results of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the previous day.
“Based on unadjusted, the final demand index rose 3.2% over the 12 months it closed in February,” a press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
“In February, when the price of final demand products rose by 0.3%, the index of final demand services fell by 0.2%.”
Changes in PPI in the US by 1 month. Source: BLS
Already a double tailwind of crypto assets and risk assets, cooling inflation generated rebounds at the strength of the US dollar, as seen in the US Dollar Index (DXY).
US Dollar Index (DXY) 1 hour chart. Source: CointeLegraph/TradingView
Nevertheless, both stocks and crypto were not moved, and Cobessy’s letter remained a major trading resource to tie it together in the ongoing US trade war.
“As we’ve seen, the market has a very calm response to inflation data that previously sent the S&P 500 sharply,” he wrote in part of his latest analysis on X.
“Why is that so? This data gives President Trump a reason to continue doing what he is doing now.”
S&P 500 1 hour chart. Source: CointeLegraph/TradingView
Kobeissi explained that trader war efforts could now intensify given that inflation would slow down.
“This is exactly why the market hasn’t recovered losses following some of the best inflation data in months,” he continues, suggesting that traders should “send for more volatility.”
A week before the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision, with each data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market expectations for financial easing were similarly inactive, potentially reducing to just 1%. The Fed’s May meeting was 28%.
Probability of the FED target rate. Source: CME Group
“The Fed has already decided. It’s not cutting this FOMC, a stable course. Powell revealed that last week,” popular crypto trader Josh Rager told X followers earlier this week, referring to a recent speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
“Rate reduction? It’s likely in May/June, not March.”
Inertia at BTC price leaves key resistance intact
Therefore, the price action of Bitcoin was between the bands of purchasing and selling exchange order book, with a simple 200-day moving average (SMA) in place as a resistance.
Related: Bitcoin Zilla hints at $80k “market rebound” as Binance inflow cools
For Keith Alan, co-founder of Trading Resource Material Indicators, this trendline, which normally serves as a support during the Bitcoin Bull Market, was the most important level of recovery.
“Bitcoin has faced strong resistance in 200 days of MA for the fourth consecutive day,” he summed up to X.
Alan didn’t think such a recovery would be that day despite the surprising catalyst in the form of an announcement from the US government, referring to its own trading tool for materials indicators.
BTC/USD 1 day chart. Source: Keith Alan/X
Meanwhile, data from monitoring resource Coinglass showed that major upward resistances, below $85,000, were clustered.
BTC clearing heat map (screenshot). Source: Coinglass
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
