March brought a considerable amount of volatility to Bitcoin. After opening trading around $90,000, Bitcoin had experienced a series of sharp declines by mid-March, falling below $80,000. This 10% revision came amid concerns about geopolitical tensions, aggressive US trade policies, and wider economic instability.
Volatility reflects broader risk-off sentiment, and the global stock market has also been sliding during this period. However, Bitcoin prices have regained some position towards the second half of March, and as market unrest cooled, it has stabilized between $82,000 and $85,000.
This turbulence had a major impact Coinbase Premium Index, this It is widely used to measure US investor sentiment. A positive premium indicates stronger US demand, while a negative premium indicates weaker demand for international markets. Throughout March 2025, the index remains primarily negative, indicating low US demand.
Coinbase Premium Index tracks the differences between Bitcoin trading prices on Coinbase and other major exchanges such as Binance, Bitstamp, OKX and more. Because Coinbase has a large US-based customer base, the index effectively measures the emotions and behavior of American investors.
While rising premiums often inform robust institutional or retail purchases in the US, a decline or negative premium suggests that domestic investors are offloading Bitcoin or showing lower interest compared to their global counterparts.
In March 2025, the Coinbase Premium Index consistently showed negative readings, with values ​​often starting. -3% to -6%. This permanent discount shows that Coinbase’s Bitcoin prices are lagging behind those on international platforms and reflecting demand from US investors. Negative trends reflect important US macroeconomic developments and contribute to a lower risk appetite among domestic traders.
Several US-specific factors were important in pushing the Coinbase Premium Index into negative territory throughout March. The Trump administration decides to impose 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10% tariff on Chinese goods New uncertainty has been introduced into financial markets.
These policies have stoked concerns about rising costs for US businesses and consumers, and weakened investors’ sentiment. As traditional markets were sold in response to these trade tensions, risky assets like Bitcoin have experienced increased volatility, leading to US investors reducing their exposure to speculative assets.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enter the revised territory in early March, 10% From the highs in February. This sharp equity slump has led many investors to settle Bitcoin Holdings and settle Bitcoin Holdings to raise cash amid a shortage of risk-decreasing players. As a result, Coinbase prices have fallen compared to the global platform.
Despite the predominantly negative trend, the Coinbase Premium Index has temporarily surged into positive territory From March 14th to 15th, climbing from about 1% to +2%. This shift coincided with a short-lived stabilization of Bitcoin prices, supporting the $80,000 mark.
The Fed’s decision to maintain fees without signalling an imminent hike has temporarily eased financial markets. Despite wider concerns continued, this perceived stability encouraged some US investors to resume dip views on risky assets such as Bitcoin, temporarily increasing Coinbase prices.
However, this positive momentum has proven to be short-lived. By March 16th, the index had returned to negative territory as macroeconomic uncertainty persisted.
The long-term negative premium highlighted a risk-averse environment in which American investors were not willing to accumulate Bitcoin, particularly amid escalating trade tensions, volatile stock markets and stagnant monetary policy.
The short premium spikes in mid-March reflect instantaneous changes in emotions that have been linked to improved short-term outlook for financial markets. However, this optimism quickly faded as the broader macroeconomic background remained unstable. The data shows that Bitcoin operates in some respects independent of traditional markets, but is particularly susceptible to economic and geopolitical developments in the United States.
A note from US investors is that Coinbase Premium Negative will first be featured in Cryptoslate.
