Since the beginning of March, net unrealized profits/losses (NUPL) and market value (MVRV) reflect the significant volatility in Bitcoin’s price, indicating how quickly investors’ sentiment has changed.
The market has remained net profit for the past few days, indicating that most investors have generally remained optimistic despite volatility that leads to some rapid price fluctuations.
The NUPL and MVRV ratios are on-chain metrics that measure the sentiment and profitability of the Bitcoin market. NUPL measures net unrealized profits or losses in the network compared to market capitalization (value > 0 indicates the investor’s net profit status).
An MVRV above 1 (or nupl above 0) means that the average owner is profitable, while a value below 1 indicates that on average it is underwater. High MVRVs (e.g. >2.4) signal large unrealized profits (often commonly seen near bullish peaks), while low MVRVs (<1.0) signal common unrealized losses (as seen in the bear market).
On March 1st, Bitcoin was over $86,000, Nupl hovered at around 0.496, and MVRV was standing near 1.98. Both measurements point to profitable markets, with nearly half of Bitcoin’s market value representing unrealized profits, with the average holder almost double the cost base.
The overall profitability of the market appeared to have collided with the pessimistic outlook caused by a decline in Bitcoin below $90,000. If NUPL exceeds 0 and MVRV exceeds 1, a strong indication of bullish emotion usually appears, but it has not yet reached the extreme greedy threshold.
Bitcoin prices skyrocketed dramatically on March 2 following President Donald Trump’s announcement of crypto sanctuaries. The rally increased prices to the range over $94,000 a day, sending NUPL to about 0.539 and MVRV to about 2.17.
The jumps in both metrics suggest that many coins have moved deeper into profits, especially for new owners who may have purchased during the latest dip. There are indications of an increase in trading volume, suggesting that traders and investors have rushed to capitalise on the rally.
However, by March 3rd, things had suddenly turned around. Bitcoin prices have given up most of the previous day’s profits and have returned to the $80,000 range. This drop pushed the Nupl to about 0.495 and about 1.98 by the MVRV. This reduction indicates that the network’s unrealized profits quickly reduced, but the metrics did not fall below zero or close to negative territory.
The fact that they both landed near the level of March 1st means that the core market structure did not collapse. It simply brings rapid profits from the day before. Short-term holders may have contributed to the sale by making profits or losing their jobs. On the other hand, many long-term participants probably remained profitable, which helped prevent a deeper decline in these on-chain metrics.
March 4th brought a partial recovery in Bitcoin prices to around $87,000 from the Daily Close. Nupl improved slightly to 0.503, and MVRV has returned above 2.0 at around 2.01. The movement was modest compared to the last two days, but the slight bounce suggests that the market has absorbed shakeout and has stabilized.
These slight increases in return suggest that holders remain in net profit. After a volatile two-day span, the average investor was still valuing coins above the total cost base.
For all four days, NUPL and MVRV remained critically positive, indicating that most investors did not move to losses even after a significant drop on March 3rd. The market saw an early surge in unrealized profits when prices surged.
Frequent profit acquisition or short-term panic sales could lower these metrics, but during this period, NUPL and MVRV were not immersed in levels suggesting wider panic or substantial surrender. Instead, swings showed a typical pattern for traders responding to large price movements, with core holders primarily maintaining their position.
Post-Bitcoin holders remain profitable despite the volatile week first appeared on Cryptoslate.
