Bitcoin to Gold ratio breaks 12 years of support as gold prices reach record $3K

Bitcoin (BTC) violated a rise in support trendline against Gold (Xau), which has been intact for over 12 years on March 14th.

Popular analyst NorthStar says the breakdown can spell the end of Bitcoin’s 12-year Bull Run.

Is the Bitcoin bull market rising? Let’s take a closer look at the correlation between BTC and gold.

Gold will raise new records as Bitcoin uptrend cools

The BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as Spot Gold rate rose by about 12.80% on March 14, reaching a new record record of over $3,000 per ounce.

In contrast, Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.

Performance reflects contrasting netflows track US-based spot exchange funds (ETFs) Bitcoin and Gold.

For example, as of March 14, the US-based Spot Gold ETFS was collectively attracting over $6.48 billion in YTD, according to the Data Resource World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen an influx of $23.1 billion.

Meanwhile, the US-based Spot Bitcoin ETF saw nearly $1.46 billion of spill YTDs, according to Onchain Data Platform GlassNode.

The driving force behind this divergence lies in the growing macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy.

Related: Bitcoin Panic Sales Costs New Investors $100 Million in 6 Weeks – Research

New tariffs in China, Mexico and Canada are increasing fears of slowing the global economy, pushing investors into traditional safe seafarer assets like gold.

Meanwhile, central banks, including US, China and the UK banks, are accelerating gold purchases and increasing gold prices.

Bitcoin, by contrast, reflects a wider risk-on market. As of March 14th, the 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq compound index was 0.76.

Have Bitcoin prices reached the top?

The current Bitcoin to Gold breakdown coincides with historical patterns, particularly fractals from March to March 2021.

At the time, the BTC/XAU ratio showed a bearish divergence characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining relative strength index (RSI). This pattern suggested a reduction in upward momentum.

As a result, the ratio first recedes towards the 2-week index moving average (EMA) support level of the 50th period, eventually plummeting 60%.

That BTC/XAU failure period coincided with a 68% fix for Bitcoin’s US dollar.

BTC/XAU has echoed the 2021-2022 Fractal and completed a two-phase EMA retest again.

The momentum appears to be declining, as RSI shows a bearish divergence, and the likelihood of further reduction increases, especially if the ratio decisively reduces 50-2W EMA support (~26 XAU).

The result could indicate an increase in Bitcoin’s dollar terms’ vulnerability to price drops, and if the 50-2W EMA falls below $65,000 it will serve as the next potential downside target.

This is about 40% down from Bitcoin’s record highs, which was established in January.

Still, Nansen analysts consider this decline a “fix within the bull market,” increasing the possibility of bullish revivals if the 50-2W EMA holds it as support. However, a critical break under EMA could push Bitcoin into the territory of the Bear Market.

This will result in as low as $34,850 if Bitcoin’s 2025 downside target is dragged into a 200-period two-week EMA (Blue Wave) if this Bitcoin Gold Fractal is repeated.

This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.