James Van Stratin (always ET, unless otherwise stated) has two contradictory philosophies that come to mind when considering recent Bitcoin (BTC) price actions.
“Buy when you have blood on the street”? Or, “Don’t catch the falling knife?”
The day after the biggest cryptocurrency recorded its sharpest three-day decline since the collapse of FTX in 2022, does it fit today’s market? The drop was 25% below the all-time high of BTC in January despite the arrival of President Donald Trump’s pro-cryptic administration.
It’s no surprise that the biggest hack in the history of code has shaken investors’ feelings. On top of that, Memecoin Frenzy has pulled liquidity from the wider market.
That said, in the previous cycle, Bitcoin fell by 35% due to the so-called bull market correction. The current situation is almost normal given that BTC has not had a meaningful pullback since the yen trade distortion last August.
Coindesk’s research showed that Bitcoin was trading in a very tough range for a meaningful period, and channel breaks were inevitable. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin has recently bounced its 200-day average or about $81,800. Maybe a panic sale while the short-term holder is selling? – At its highest level since August, it holds BTC within 155 days, and is usually seen as a signal of some form of surrender in the market.
BlackRock’s IBIT saw a record leak on Wednesday. But that’s not all bad news. A large expansion agreement was made against Core Scientific (CORZ), but Mara Holdings (Mara) reported strong revenues, with both stocks exceeding 10% before opening. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) surpasses fourth quarter estimates to calm investors’ nerves. Keep alerts!
What to see
Cryptography:
February 27th: The release of the Solana-based L2 Sonic SVM mainnet (Mobius)
March 1: Spot deals on Arkham Exchange are open to 17 US states.
March 5th (tentative): Testing of the Ethereum Pectra upgrade on Sepolia TestNet will begin at Epoch 222464.
Macros
Day 2: First G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Conference of 2025 (Cape Town, South Africa).
7am, February 27th: Brazil’s Institute of Geographical Statistics (IBGE) will release employment data for January.
Unemployment rate EST. 6.6% vs. 6.2%
February 27th: 7am: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics Release January Employment Data
Unemployment rate EST. 2.7% vs. 2.4%
February 27th, 8:30am: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its second GDP (second estimate).
Core PCE price QOQ EST. 2.5% vs. 2.2%
PCE price QOQ EST. 2.3% vs. 1.5%
GDP growth rate QOQ EST. 2.3% vs. 3.1%
February 27th at 8:30am: The U.S. Department of Labor will claim unemployment insurance every week for the week that ended February 22nd.
The first unemployment claim was est. 221K vs. front. 219k
February 28th at 8:30am: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its January personal consumption data.
Core PCE Price Index Mom EST. 0.3% vs. 0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Yoy EST. 2.6% vs. 2.8%
PCE Price Index Mom EST. 0.3% vs. 0.3%
PCE PRISC INDEXYOY EST. 2.5% vs. 2.6%
Personal Income Mama EST. 0.3% vs. 0.4%
Personal spending mom EST. 0.1% vs. 0.7%
Revenue
March 6th (TBC): BitFarms (BITF), $ -0.04
March 17th (TBC): Bit Digital (BTBT), $ -0.05
March 18th (TBC): Terawulf (Wulf), $ -0.03
March 24th (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C $0.38
Token Event
Governance votes and phone calls
Dydx Dao is voting to distribute $1.5 million in Dydx tokens from the Community Treasury to trading users for Season 9 as part of their incentive program.
February 27th, 11am: IOTA (IOTA) Ask Me Anything Anything (AMA) session will be held with co-founder Dominik Schiener and Thoralf, a senior software engineer in smart contract platforms and development tools.
February 27th, 2pm: Vechain (Vet) to cover monthly updates with community calls.
Unlock
February 28: Optimism (OP) unlocks 2.32% of distribution supply worth $36.67 million.
March 1: dydx unlocks 1.14% of its circulation supply worth $6.13 million.
March 1: Zetachine (Zeta) unlocks 6.48% of its distribution supply worth $1,358 million.
March 1: SUI (SUI) unlocks 0.74% of its distribution supply worth $6,752 million.
March 2: Ethena (ENA) unlocks 1.3% of its circulation supply worth $17.79 million.
March 7: Kaspa (KAS) unlocks 0.63% of its $14.23 million worth of circulation supply.
March 8: Bella Chine (Bella) to unlock 9.28% of the distribution supply worth $77.80 million.
Token List
February 27: Venice Token (VVV) listed in Kraken.
February 28: Worldcoin (WLD) listed in Kraken.
February 28th: ​​Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (Dash) have been discontinued from Bibit
meeting
The Koindsk consensus will be held in Toronto from May 14th to 16th. Save 15% on your pass with Code Day Book.
Day 8: Esden 2025 (Denver)
March 2-3: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest)
March 8th: Bitcoin Alive (Sydney)
March 10th-11th: MoneyLive Summit (London)
March 13th-14: Web3 Amsterdam ’25 (Netherlands)
March 19th-20th: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)
March 26th: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 28th: ​​Solana Apex (Cape Town)
Token talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Pump.Fun, a Solana-based Memecoin Launchpad, has seen a sharp decline in token launches and graduations amid the decline in the market.
The platform peaked in October 2024, creating more than 36,000 tokens in a day, generating a record $3 billion market capitalization in its ecosystem, but activity has since plummeted, with daily token launches falling by more than 60%.
Dune Analytics data shows that Pump.Fun token graduation rates remain low at around 1%-2%, with many tokens unable to maintain their post-release value, contributing to the economic downturn.
A decline occurs as Solana’s Sol has dropped by more than 40% since the beginning of the year.
Positioning of derivatives
There is growing open interest in perceptual futures related to APT, one of the most performant coins in the last 24 hours, but the funding rate and cumulative volume delta are negative. It is a sign that traders hedge negative side risk.
Sol and LTC also see an open interest increase, but there is a positive financing rate.
Deribit’s BTC and ETH options show negative side concerns that will be extended until the end of March, but satisfaction levels have continued to indicate preference for call options.
The block flows on the paradigm are mixed, deselecting the Puts and OTM call spreads. The Sol March 7 Expiry Put option was purchased on a $120 strike.
Market movements:
BTC is up 3% from 4pm on Wednesday at $86,735.19 (24 hours: -2.12%)
ETH is up 1.98% at $2,378.49 (24 hours: -3.49%)
Coindesk 20 is up 2.98% at 2,821.02 (24 hours: -1.13%)
Ether CESR Composite staking rate fell 26 bps at 3.02%
BTC’s funding rate is 0.0039% (annual rate of 4.26%) in terms of vinanence.
DXY is up 0.23% 106.66
Gold is down 0.77% at $2,893.59/ounce
Silver fell 0.27% to $31.83/ounce
Nikkei 225 closed 0.3% at 38,256.17
Hang Seng closed -0.29% at 23,718.29
FTSE is up 0.19% at 8,748.36
The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.72% at 5,487.97
DJIA closed on Wednesday – 0.43% at 43,433.12
The S&P 500 was unchanged at 5,956.06
Nasdaq closed 0.26% at 19,075.26
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 0.49% at 25,328.36
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.46% at 2,379.84
The 10-year financial ratio in the US is up 5 bps at 4.31%
E-Mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.57% at 6,005.00
E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.64% at 21,322.25
E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures is up 0.24% at 43,612.00
Bitcoin statistics:
BTC dominance: 60.77 (0.31%)
Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02744 (-1.05%)
Hash rate (7-day moving average): 766 EH/s
Hashpris (spot): $50.5
Total Fee: 10.9 BTC/$915,415
CME Futures Open Interest: 155,270 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 29.6 oz
BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.42%
Technical Analysis
BTC’s double-top breakdown exposed support that turned its previous resistance to under $74,000.
There is no other support in the price list between $90,000 and $74,000.
Crypto stocks
MicroStrategy (MSTR): Closed Wednesday at $263.27 (+5.09%), up 2.82% to $270.70 in the previous market
Coinbase Global (Coin): Closed at $212.96 (+0.22%), up 3.22% at $219.81
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed at C$20.16 (+0.35%)
Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed at $12.45 (+0.28%), up 12.93% at $14.06
Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed at $8.94 (-4.08%), increasing 3.69% to $9.27
Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $10.02 (+2.66%), up 18.46% at $11.87
CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $7.88 (-3.31%), increasing 3.43% to $8.15
Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $17.22 (+1.06%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $43.91 (+3.51%), up 1.41%
Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed at $44.48 (+11.59%), with an increase of 8.48% at $48.25
ETF Flow
Spot BTCETFS:
Daily Net Flow: – $754.6 million
Cumulative net flow: $371.3 billion
Total BTC holdings: 1,139 million.
Spot ETH ETF
Daily Net Flow: – $94.3 million
Cumulative net flow: $2.93 billion
Total ETH holdings: 3714 million.
Source: Farside Investors
One night flow
The chart of the day
The chart shows a large outflow of stablecoin usdts with tether dollars from central exchange.
It could be a sign of traders preparing for deeper market slumps and liquidity spins from intensive paths to decentralized platforms.
While you’re asleep
Bitcoin registers its largest 3-day price slide since the FTX blunder. What’s next? (Coindesk): Slides were driven by more severe Fiat liquidity and weakening institutional demand. According to technical analysis, the price could drop to around $70,000.
The FBI is seeking help with the Bibit Hack Fund (Coindesk) tracking, washing, block tracking and blocking. In the public service announcement, the Ethereum address listed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is linked to crypto assets that have been stolen from Bibit recently.
Metaplanet aims to raise more than $13 million from bond sales to buy more Bitcoin (Coindesk). Japanese company Metaplanet Inc (3350) said it is raising an additional 2 billion yen ($13.3 million) by selling additional regular bonds at 0% interest.
Investors are betting on the most rapid divergence of US and European inflation since 2022 (Reuters): Data from the inflation swap market suggests that stronger growth and tariff pressures will keep US inflation higher than the eurozone, where lower energy costs help to keep prices down.
Trump shocks Europe to chase billions for military construction (Bloomberg): European leaders are amending fiscal rules, enabling joint borrowing, and allowing recovery funds to be reused to boost military capabilities amid the rising security challenges.
Trump has announced the truth of the socially unveiled that he is turning the licence he was shaking after the two-year-old Biden era, who allowed him to operate in Venezuela, citing Chevron’s lack of a Venezuela oil license (Reuters).
Argentina’s Memo Coin scandal avoids the hunt (Reuters) of Miley’s election allies: President Miley’s Libra promotion – crashed shortly after launch – and subsequent investigations complicate his efforts to build a political alliance ahead of the midterm elections.
With ether
