Global Macro Jurrien Timmer’s director of Fidelity Investments believes Bitcoin (BTC) has a “possible” pass that exceeds market value gold, but “it’s not immediately.”
In a detailed social media post, Timer explained his views using a chart comparing the predicted growth of gold and Bitcoin over time.
He said that as gold continues to grow at an historic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% – the trend seen since 1970 – Bitcoin follows either the adoption curve of the electricity law or the Internet’s S-curve growth model.
Timmer wrote:
“If Bitcoin grows at the speed proposed in these two models, hard money could win the race. This suggests that gold will rate it faster than 8% per year. So, my guess is that gold will always be Bitcoin’s quiet brother.”
This prediction is far more cautious than other industry leaders share, such as Galaxy and strategy founder Michael Saylor.
Institutional momentum
Timmer’s comments come amidst the significant volatility in the crypto market. Bitcoin again fell below $84,000 on March 28, down about 33% against gold since its peak in December.
The price struggle is as inflation concerns and trade tensions continue to weigh risk assets amid modest market sentiment. Meanwhile, gold continues to reach its all-time highs, strengthening its long-standing role as a safe haven.
Despite the declining price of Bitcoin, major institutions continue to show confidence in their assets. On March 27th, Fidelity and BlackRock pushed $89 million in line with the Bitcoin ETF, led by Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC).
Continuous capital injections signal a heightened institutional conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
Saylor looks at $500 trillion market capitalization
While Timer delivers measured take, strategy founder Michael Saylor recently presented a much more positive forecast.
Speaking at the DC Blockchain Summit on March 28, Saylor predicted that Bitcoin’s market capitalization could skyrocket to $500 trillion as it absorbs value from traditional assets such as gold, real estate and sovereign wealth.
Saylor argued that Bitcoin is replacing “20th century assets” with digital, decentralized and inflation-resistant alternatives. He compared the transition to historical changes in financial systems like European colonies, where European settlers introduced money into societies using beads and shells.
Saylor added that the asset will “satise the dust” from the reorganization, and that the US has an opportunity to “grab” between 25% and 30% of the global Bitcoin value.
Still, the debate is clearly changing. As more institutional funds flow and long-term models project exponential adoption, the conversation is no longer whether Bitcoin belongs to the same conversation as gold, and on what conditions could it be that they will catch up?
For now, Fidelity’s Timmer called attention and said flipping was “possible”, but gold – stable, quiet, time-tested gold still holds the advantage.
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