XRP (XRP) Daily Chart registered the lowest candles for the 99 days on March 10th. Altcoin has fallen below the $2 support level, but registered a short-term recovery of 12% on March 11th.
XRP 1 hour chart. Source: CointeLegraph/TradingView
High time frame (HTF) charts suggest that XRP should be $2 above the psychological level, while other metrics suggest that deeper drawdowns are possible.
The XRP market has no buyers as the future is bearish
XRP prices are currently down 37.1% from an all-time high of $3.40. When prices fell at a similar percentage on February 3, Spot Market Bids quickly absorbed sales pressure, surpassing the XRP of $2.50.
XRP spots and persistent aggregate data. Source: aggr.trade
However, XRP’s spots and persistent markets have been relatively bearish over the past week. Data from Aggr.Trade shows that XRP’s spot cumulative volume Delta (CVD) fell 50% in March.
Negative CVD means there is more sales than you buy. The current CVD value is -488 million, indicating a decline in demand, with sellers in control.
Similarly, futures traders also fell to -118 billion on March 11th with a permanent CVD falling to -118 billion, and XRP’s open interest-weighted funding rate has also become significantly negative, indicating that more shorter positions have been added in the past few days.
XRP Funding Rate Chart. Source: Coinglass
XRP Whale continues to sell liquor
XRP’s Volume Bubble Map showed a surge in activity towards the end of February. Ki-Young Ju, founder of Cryptoquant, observed that this rise coincided with the continued distribution stage of XRP.
Distribution refers to the period of a market cycle where large investors slowly offload positions to secure profits, usually occurring near the peak of the upward trend.
Related: Why is XRP lowering prices today?
Current data reveals enhanced distribution stages over the past seven days. Specifically, whale outflow measured as a 30-day moving average has been steadily rising.
This increase suggests that large holders will continue to offload XRP positions, further promoting trends in distribution.
XRP total whale flow. Source: Cryptoquant
Between March 4 and March 10, these large XRP holders offloaded positions of approximately $838 million. This important sale reflects XRP’s ongoing bearish trend.
The H&S pattern in XRP prices suggests a retest of $1.60
On March 11th, XRP’s one-day chart fell below $2.05. This is an important neckline in your daily head and shoulder patterns. This pattern produces potentially strong bearish results when observed on high time frame (HTF) charts.
XRP 1-Day Chart. Source: CointeLegraph/TradingView
As shown in the chart above, if XRP can’t recover $2.05 as support, a low price is likely.
The direct target zone for XRP prices remains the retracement line between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci. The retest range, also known as the “Golden Zone,” ranges from $1.90 to $1.60. In the current bearish environment, there is a high chance that you will retest 0.618 Fibonacci or $1.60.
Failure to maintain this range could result in a long-term demand zone being retested between $1.58 and $1.27.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
