By Omkar Godbole (unless otherwise indicated)
The crypto market has been somewhat stable following comments from Commerce Minister Howard Lutonic, who said on Wednesday that President Donald Trump could announce tariff relief routes for Canada-Mexican imports covered by NAFTA.
This brought BTC to nearly $90,000, and its total crypto market capitalization rose to $2.9 trillion. The recovery could expand even further as the fears of the recent trade war and market volatility have reignited bets on Federal Reserve rate reductions.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market is priced at least three interest rate cuts this year, but the Treasury yield fell from 4.80% when Trump took office to 4.15%. Meanwhile, the German decision to abandon financial constraints has skyrocketed bond yields and prompted the sale of dollar indexes that could encourage risk-taking in the market.
As a result, Bitcoin could revisit its weekend high of $95,000, especially as the technology chart shows signs of seller fatigue.
However, exacerbating growth concerns can limit these benefits. Just two days ago, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast tested negative at 20.8%, as Singapore-based QCP Capital noted, increasing the fear of stags. The company emphasized the importance of monitoring company yield spreads (both high yields and investment grade bonds) in relation to U.S. Treasury yields on signs of market stress. “This is not a sign of panic at the moment, but it is a trend worth closely monitoring,” QCP said in a telegram broadcast.
An important consideration is that a decade-long decline in yields and a decrease in dollar weakness can be attributed to traders adjusting expectations about US economic exceptionalism based primarily on Biden-era fiscal splurge. Given the rise of ETFs and Trump’s pro-crypto stance, Bitcoin becomes a US play, and a change in the American exceptionalist narrative could lead to BTC volatility.
However, JP Morgan foreshadows a reinforcement of the US exceptionalist narrative under President Trump.
All this means that US ISM non-manufacturing (service) PMI on Wednesday and non-farm pay on Friday could have a major impact on the crypto market.
There are also rumours that President Trump will announce a cryptographic reserve strategy at the White House Script Summit this Friday. With Trump making quite a promise, the market will be watching closely to see if he will deliver. Otherwise there could be more confusion. Keep alerts!
What to see
Crypto: 11am, March 5th: Circle will hold a live webinar entitled “State of the USDC Economy 2025,” featuring Circle Chief Strategy Director and head of Global Policy Dantedy Part, along with three other executives from Bridge, Nubank and Cumberland. Bringing together founders, CEOs and investors of Crypto Summit, Top Cryptocurrency. March11: The Bitcoin Policy Institute and US Senator Cynthia Lumis will co-host Bitcoin for America, an invitation-only one-day event in Washington. We will release Brazilian economic activity data in February. 47.6 Composite PMI prev. 48.2march 5, 8:15 AM: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release employment data for the non-US private sector in February. ADP Employment Change EST. 140k vs. 183kmarch 5, 9:30am: S&P Global Releases February Canada Economic Activity Data. 49Composite PMI prev. 49.5march 5, 9:45 AM: S&P Global Releases February US economic activity data. 49.7 vs. 52.9COMPOSITE PMI EST. vs. 50.4 vs. before. 52.7march 5, 10:00 AM: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release US Economic Activity Data in February. ServicesPMIEST. 52.6 vs. Married at 52.8 (ests based on fact set data. TBC): Bitfarms (BITF), $ -0.06 MARCH 17 (TBC): BIT DIGITAL (BTBT), $ -0.05 MARCH 18 (TBC): Terawulf (WULF), $ -0.04 MARCH 24 (TBC), GALAXY DIGITAL HOLDINGS
Token Event
Governance Voting and Callunlocksmarch 7: Kaspa (KAS) unlocks 0.63% of distribution supplies worth $12.68 million. March9: Movement Unlocks 2.08% of distribution supply worth $20.85 million. 2.33% of circulation supply is equivalent to $11.88 million. March 15: SEI (SEI) unlocks 1.19% of its distribution supply worth $12.76 million. Kucoin and Mexc.
meeting
Token talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Berachain’s “first” Memecoin Henlo will be released and will soon earn a market capitalization of $26 million after its publication. Henlo is Berachain’s community-driven memo coin created by Honey Jar Collective, focusing on humor and engagement without explicit utility. Bellachine’s mainnet rewards early adopters with “points” in Henlo. Strengthen utilities with staking and governance, expand partnerships, refine toconemics (a total supply of 100 billion), and grow communities through events and airdrops.
Positioning of derivatives
Positioning in BTC and ETH CME futures remains light despite signs of market stability, leaving a base of nearly 6%. The persistent funding rate of BTC, ETH is slightly positive, indicating continued attention among traders. BCH leads the majors in terms of price and open interest profits, but the flat 24-hour cumulative volume delta has questioned the sustainability of price surges. Reversal of BTC risk indicates a bias in puts at mid-March and end-of-month expiration dates. Prices will only be bullish in favor of Cole after the expiration of April. The ETH option shows a similar story.
Market movements:
BTC is up 2.85% from 4pm on Tuesday at $90,063.44 (24 hours: +6.98%). 3.36% BTC’s funding rate is -0.0007% (-0.25% annually) in binance
DXY is down 0.69% at 105.01GOLD, an increase of 0.57% at 2926.20/Oz Silver is up 2.58% at 32.94/oznikkei 225, and 37,418.24hang seng is closed at 23,594.21ft +2.84% +2.84%. 2.45% closed on Tuesday -1.55% with 42,520.99S and the P 500 with 5,778.15 NASDAQ. 2,286.69 US 10-year financial ratio has not changed at 4.25% e-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.66% on 5,828.00.000.mini Nasdaq-100 futures.
Bitcoin statistics:
BTC domination: 61.29 (0.03%) Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02500 (0.48%) Hashrate (7-day moving average): 808 EH/Shashprice (Spot): $49.6TOTAL Fee: 5.24 BTC/$444,853 CME FUTURES OPENTCME FUTURES OPEN TEMS: OZBTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.72%
Technical Analysis
The Dollar Index, which tracks the value of greenbacks against major currencies, has fallen to its lowest since November, establishing a decent downtrend on daily charts. Further losses in DXY are expected as Germany and bond yield spreads in a euro-positive way. The weakness of DXY is generally a good for riskier assets.
Crypto stocks
MicroStrategy (MSTR): Closed on Tuesday at $275.15 (+9.66%), increased by 3.83% to $285.80 at $285.80 (coin): closed at $212.55 (+3.3%), increased by 2.34% to $217.53GALAXY Digital Hold (GLXY) (Mara): closed at $13.97 (+1.31%), increased by 4.58% to 14.61111 Platforms (riots): closed at $8.41 (-5.08%), increased by 4.28% to $8.777 Core Science (CORZ): $9.59 (-5.42%), $10.14 ClounsPARK increased by 5.74% (-5.42%). (-0.39%), 4.64% increase $8.12 Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $16.26 (-1.45%), 5.1% increase 17.09 Semler Scientific (SMLR) +3.69% increase $42.48
ETF Flow
Spot BTCETFS:
Daily Net Flow: – Cumulative net flow of $143.5 million: $367.3 billion BTC holdings – 1,139 million.
Spot ETH ETF
Daily Net Flow: Cumulative Net Flow: $14.6 million in ETH Holds ~3.649 million.
Source: Farside Investors
One night flow
The chart of the day
The chart shows an implicit volatility terminology structure based on Bitcoin options. This is a graphical representation of implicit or expected volatility at different expiration dates. Both Forward IV and Mark IV show major conflicts on March 8th. This shows traders hope Trump’s comments at the White House Crypto Summit on Friday will lead to a volatile market situation.
While you’re asleep
Metaplanet will buy 497 BTC in another bargain, Bitcoin acquisition (Coindesk): Japan’s Metaplanet announced Wednesday that its latest Bitcoin purchase, acquired for $88,448 per BTC, will bring 2,888 BTC.BlackRock’s ETF ETF REGISTERS HITSF REGISTERS HITSF REGISTERS BOULT IN 3 MOTIONS (BITCOINS ETF REGISTERS BLACKROCK). Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) prices fell last week, with trading volume reaching its highest level since mid-November. When AaveDao unveiled the “most important” proposal (Coindesk), Aave Dao proposed a plan for Aave Dao to support Aave Token Value and provide compensation from Aave Bates, including protecting Dortangs Montuns’ workplace protection program. Congress (Financial Times): In a speech to Congress Tuesday night, Trump pledged to bring Greenland to the US, ending the Russian-Ukraine war and praised Elon Musk for reducing government waste. We have reduced our consumer inflation target to about 2%. Dollar terrified of the US outlook (Wall Street Journal): The dollar was 16 weeks low, and the DXY index was slid at 105.252 due to US economic weakness, trade policy disruptions, and concerns that inflation weighs heavily on investors’ trust.
With ether
