Unrealized losses have reached the highest level since October 2023 as Bitcoin has dropped to $76K

On April 8th, Bitcoin’s net unrealized loss (NUP) ratio skyrocketed to 0.0578. This was the highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, the net unrealized profit/loss ratio fell to 0.4253 on the same day.

This followed Bitcoin’s decline to $76,000 amid a sharply aggressive retrace from the mid-term to $80,000 range that has been traded over the past few weeks.

Nupl and Nul are valuable tools for assessing the behavioral status of Bitcoin holders. These metrics are derived from the difference in the current market price and realised price of Bitcoin, the average price that all coins moved last in chains.

nupl = (Market Cap – Realization Cap) / Market Cap nul = (Market Cap – Realization Cap) / Market Cap

NUPL represents the ratio of unrealized benefits within the network. High NUPL suggests that most coins are profitable, while low or negative NUPLs indicate widespread losses. The reverse nul measures unrealized losses.

High NUL suggests that many coins are below the acquisition cost. This is usually associated with surrender or fear. Together, these indicators help identify market cycles, emotional transitions, and inflection points that precede major movements.

A NUL of 0.0578 meant that 5.78% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization was at an unrealized loss. This means that a considerable cohort of market participants, primarily a cohort approaching the March peak of Bitcoin, has found themselves missing BTC. This is a meaningful psychological change, as it shows the onset of fear among short-term holders and the sharp cooling of bullish emotions seen at the beginning of the year.

To put this in context, prior to 2025, the lowest NUL reading occurred when it reached 0.0 on December 15, 2024. Bitcoin was trading above $104,000 that day, with almost all holders profiting. At about the same time, NUPL peaked at 0.6349. This is a level related to historically euphoric feelings and overheated market conditions. These measurements were consistent with mature bull facies, often followed by increased distribution and volatility.

The transition from these extreme highs to the present midrange suggests a market that is being fixed rather than collapse. Nupl remains above 0.4, indicating that most investors are still profiting. However, rising NUL means that losses are increasing among recent participants, especially those who have gained strength later in the cycle.

First, the rise in null and the fall in Nupl in April reveal that the market has shifted from risk-on to highly reactive and cautious sentiment. Profit ratios have been reduced, and increased coin share has resulted in losses. This indicates that short-term holders are under immeasurable pressure, and the market will be re-adjusted after the rally.

Second, the relatively modest rise in NUL is still well below 0.1, indicating that this is not a widespread surrender event. Historically, NUL levels above 0.1 have been linked to deep bare markets and network-wide stress. The current 0.0578 level refers to localized loss corrections that are likely to be centered around recent buyers.

Third, Nupl’s resilience above 0.4 supports the paper that long-term holders remain primarily unwavering with profits. These holders usually act as stabilizing forces during volatility, and their convictions often set the basis for new accumulation zones.

Fourth, Bitcoin’s price action shows that while prices have dropped significantly from their peak, the historically promoted range remained above $76,000 in April, remaining at a maximum of $85,000. This further supports the view that there is little evidence of panic sales or systematic de lavalization, and that drawdowns are technical rather than structured.

Nupl and nul data clearly show the markets in the transition. The recovery in both ratios as of April 10 shows that the broader market structure remains intact, with most holders still making profits.

This setup is similar to the historical stage in which the market consolidates before setting a new upward stage when macro conditions are preferred.

Post’s unrealized losses have reached the highest level since October 2023, as Bitcoin dropped to 76K.