Bitcoin (BTC) tapped $88,700 this week, but was later revised to under $87,000 on March 27th.
The recent rejection from the $88,000 resistance level raises questions about whether BTC prices could drop even further in the coming days.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: CointeLegraph/TradingView
Can Trump’s tariffs lower the price of Bitcoin?
On March 26, 2025, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all cars and light trucks imported on April 3. Market participants are concerned about lowering prices, causing another sale in cryptocurrency.
Important takeouts:
The 25% tariff on automobile imports covers major trading partners such as Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany and more.
Trump has touted this as a boon to the American automotive industry, but immediate fallout is likely rattling global markets.
For example, when Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in early March, Bitcoin fell from $105,000 to $92,000 a night before partially recovering.
These broader automobile fares could amplify this effect, particularly as markets support retaliatory measures from affected countries.
Commenting on the current risk assets landscape, trading company QCP Capital highlighted the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and said it could widen trade tensions.
“A further retaliation from these target economies risks injecting new waves of uncertainty into the already volatile global trade landscape,” he wrote to investors in a telegram memo.
QCP also noted that “feeling remains restrained despite the headline grabbing catalyst,” including raising $1.3 billion for GME’s surprising potential Bitcoin purchases.
The only positive catalyst is a stable influx into spot BTC ETFs, totaling $944.9 million since March 11th, adding:
“This presents conscious differences that reflect divergent institutional beliefs in the market.”
Bitcoin could further reduce demand
According to market intelligence company GlassNode, demand for Bitcoin remains relatively low, meaning a decrease in risk appetite for potential investors.
Related: BTC will not exceed $138,000 in 2025 BITCOIN price forecast market
What I Know:
This week’s Onchain report from GlassNode highlights the shrinking demand for Bitcoin, measured by assessing the amount of realized profits and losses that investors have been trapped in.
This provides important information about the power of the seller that arises across the spot market.
Bitcoin’s realised profits and losses have “experienced a major contraction” since its record high exceeded $109,000.
This metric is currently at similar levels seen between $50,000 and $70,000 in the 2024 accumulation zone, suggesting a similar demand profile.
Bitcoin: Absolutely realized profits and realised losses. Source: GlassNode
Sustainable bull markets are usually characterized by a consistent, growing inflow of fresh capital that enters the network (capital inflow from new investors).
The difference between long-term holders (LTH) profits and short-term holders (STH) loss realizations has dropped sharply from the $109,000 record and has returned to the “neutral zone.”
This means that an equivalent amount of STH losses currently offset LTH profits, the report added:
“This suggests a relative stagnation of new capital inflows, a weaker force of demand-side forces, and a slower but meaningful benefit in restraint that acts as resistance.”
Bitcoin: The difference between LTH realised profit and STH realized losses. Source: GlassNode
GlassNode concludes that while the STH cohort controls the loss, the LTH cohort returns to a period of accumulation. This could signal a bitcoin recovery.
“As a result, we expect their total supply to grow in the coming weeks and months.”
As reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin LTHS continues to retain profits despite recent sales, demonstrating a strong belief that Bullmarket’s gatherings will eventually resume.
Important Bitcoin Levels to Watch
Traders are currently focusing on key areas at the $88,000 level.
especially:
The key level of Bitcoin for immediate viewing on the downside is a 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $85,500, with a major support of about $82,700.
The first area of ​​interest lies between the lowest values ​​of the two recent ranges. It costs $81,138 (formed March 18th) and $76,600 (formed March 11th).
BTC could potentially target liquidity clusters around these levels if $82,000 of support is lost.
The Bulls’ immediate reprieve is a sharp reversal from this range, indicating that they will purchase interest below SMA for 200 days.
If support is lost, BTC can test the next area of ​​interest between $72,200 and $74,500 before filling the fair gap below it at $70,000.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: CointeLegraph/TradingView
The chart above also shows important zones of resistance between $88,700 and $92,000 (there are currently sitting for 50 and 100 days of SMA).
Overcoming this barrier confirms the end of the downtrend as the Bulls look to more than $100,000.
Popular Analyst Decode says its 20-week index moving average (EMA) is $88,600. “Currently, it’s the most important level for Bitcoin.”
For Keith Alan, co-founder of Resource Material Indicator, Bitcoin will need to collect the 2025 annual opening for around $93,300 to confirm the continued bull cycle.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
